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Truman Presidential Library: President Truman Had ‘Little Regard’ for Polls

For the past several days, SLDN staff has been working with the Truman Presidential Library to learn more on surveys conducted on the desegregation of our armed forces.   Earlier this week, Pentagon spokeswoman Cynthia Smith told the Advocate that the military had conducted surveys about racial segregation prior to President Harry Truman’s executive order in 1948.

Smith’s statement attempted to help justify why the military is surveying the troops to allow for gay and lesbians to serve honestly in our armed forces.  Our friends at the Wonkroom conducted some research at the National Archives and found some of these surveys, which you can read on their site. 
 
Linking the World War II era documents and the survey presently being distributed by the Defense Department, as Smith attempts to do, is a stretch.  First and foremost, the survey were further not done explicitly to prepare for desegregation nor to inform Truman’s policymaking.  In fact, nearly all of the studies were conducted before Truman became Vice President, let alone before he was in the Oval Office.  In 1942, when most of the studies were conducted, Truman was a United States Senator.

The historical surveys were comparatively small affairs, generally no larger than sufficient to generate statistically significant results (less than 6,000 service members each).  This is a far cry from the 400,000 troops currently being polled, which is a wholly unprecedented scale of inquiry into military opinion, and its statistical relevance is questionable, as pointed out by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com.  And let’s not forget the recent words uttered by our Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee: “ the military is not a democracy.”

However, the most important distinction from the World War II era surveys to present day is one of leadership.  Truman desegregated the armed forces not for political gain, nor due to overwhelming pressure.  He did not rely on surveys to guide his decision making and was not afraid to suffer political harm if his cause was right.  In conversations with the Truman Library, archivist Randy Sowell reports:

"I cannot recall seeing any evidence that Truman was influenced by surveys of opinion in the military regarding racial integration.  In general, I should note that Truman had little regard for public opinion polls and surveys, an attitude that was reinforced by his experiences in the 1948 election campaign, when every major poll predicted his defeat.  "I wonder how far Moses would have gone if he'd taken a poll in Egypt?" Truman wrote in later years . . . it isn''t polls or public opinion of the moment that counts.  It's right and wrong and leadership."

Truman’s adage on policy “it isn't polls or public opinion of the moment that counts.  It's right and wrong and leadership,” is a lesson as relevant in 2010 as it was 62 years ago.

07-23-10 By Daniel Hennessey, Communications Intern |